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Wednesday, December 31, 2008

HAPPY NEW YEAR NEWS!!!

Dow Jones 30 December


US- Bailout worth USD5 billion from US government give to GM (General Motors Corp). Hope it can increase house and vehicles sale. So consumer trust will increase! Government receive feed back from GM from additional preferred equity as big as 5% - 9%, will pay in the form of a dividend.

Bush give stimulus as USD 700 Billion to raise the financial sector.

Initial total jobless claims 26-year high, indicate signaling worsening labor conditions as the economy heads into a second year of a recession.

``We expect job losses to continue,'' Ethan Harris, co-head of U.S. economic research at Barclays Capital Inc.

Next January, President-elect Barack Obama is preparing a two-year stimulus package worth as much as $850 billion to save or create 3 million jobs and revive growth.


Dow Jones Industrial Graphic condition look picture above

  1. Bollinger Band get tight
  2. MA30 already crossed by green candlestick, but volume is low!!
  3. Still move around at 50% RSI line.
  4. Will form a cone.

It still SIDEWAYS CONDITION, volume is very low!! If break the cone and reach upper line of Bollinger Band, it is BULLISH TIME!!

Read More....

Monday, December 29, 2008

Crude Oil Rise again!!!

World - Crude oil rose into 42$ for a second day after Israel strikes Gaza. It supply from the Middle East, the world’s largest producing region, may be disrupted. HOPE this will Over!!

Gold may also benefit if any escalation of the tension in the Middle East drives investors toward a “safe haven,” said Tobi Hassal , a research analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia Pty in Sydney. Bullion for immediate delivery rose 1.7 percent to $884.42 an ounce, having gained as much as 3.1 percent on Dec. 26.

US - By Bob Willis
Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the U.S. probably shrank at the fastest pace since 1980 as the deepening global recession forced customers in North America, Europe and Asia to cut back, economists said before reports this week.

The Institute for Supply Management’s December factory index dropped to 35.4, the lowest reading in almost three decades, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A separate report may show the record drop in home prices accelerated in October.

Consumer Confidence meanwhile, may have edged up for a second month in December thanks to plunging gasoline prices. The Conference Board’s gauge, due Dec. 30, rose to 45.5 from 44.9 in November, according to the survey median. The gauge reached a record-low 38.8 in October.

Kuwait cancel Investment into chemical sector, because of that Rohm & Haas Co can not finished it’s merger, Rohm & Haas fell $10.22, or 16 percent, to $53.34. Michigan-based Dow, the biggest U.S. chemical company, or 21 percent, to $15.32, the worst drop since 1980.


Indonesia - In January 2009 Government ready to cut interest rate 50 points to be 8,75 percent! Inflation can be press again. And fuel oil will be down again if oil price still below 40$!!

It is the government's plan for a increase real sector to move the economy. If interest rates are low, the real sector will be easier to rise, especially in the request for additional funds from the bank loan. It can be GOOD for Bank, Automotives, and Real Estate sector!!

What best BUY for now??? Nothing because the Volume is very very low!! Just enjoy your Holiday!! Stock rise because of WAR, is not good timing to buy!!


Read More....

Sunday, December 28, 2008

MACD Indicator

MACD indicatorsClick Picture to Enlarge!!

MACD

One of The Famous Indicators. You can use any period of day to calculate MACD. I usually use 30-day moving average and 60-day moving average. If you want to play fast or swing trading use 5-day moving average and 10-day moving average!! Hmm you can Use 5-day (Fast Trade) or 20-day (Long Trade) moving average for SIGNAL!!


When the MACD is above zero, it means the 30-day moving average is higher than the 60-day moving average. This implies a bullish, or upward, shift in the supply/demand lines. When the MACD falls below zero, it means that the 30-day moving average is less than the 60-day moving average, implying a bearish shift in the supply/demand lines.


The MACD line is calculated by subtracting the value of a 60-day exponential moving average from a 30-day exponential moving average. A 20-day dotted exponential moving average as the MACD "SIGNAL" line. That is MACD indicators.


Look Picture Above!!!

BUY time when MACD line cross SIGNAL line from bottom to top.

SELL time when MACD line cross SIGNAL line from top to bottom.

WARNING sell all your stock if MACD line and SIGNAL line can not back above 0 lines, it is BEARISH TIME!!!!

Read More....

Friday, December 26, 2008

CANDLESTICK SIGNAL Part Two

Bullish Engulfing

Bullish Engulfing
Contain only two candlesticks, use as reversal signal from BEAR to BULL. It form when Green candlestick bigger than Red candlestick which form the day before. And Green candlestick body cover Red candlestick.








Bullish Harami

Bullish Harami
Contain only two candlesticks, use as reversal signal from BEAR to BULL. It form when Green candlestick smaller than Red candlestick which form the day before. And Red candlestick body cover Green candlestick.









Bearish Engulfing

Bearish Engulfing
Contain only two candlesticks, use as reversal signal from BULL to BEAR. It form when Red candlestick bigger than Green candlestick which form the day before. And Red candlestick body cover Green candlestick.









Bearish Harami

Bearish Harami
Contain only two candlesticks, use as reversal signal from BULL to BEAR. It form when Red candlestick smaller than Green candlestick which form the day before. And Green candlestick body cover Red candlestick.

Read More....

Thursday, December 25, 2008

News Bakrie and Crude Oil

Indonesia - PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk and Northstar Pacific already finished made joint venture!! NorthStar Pacific take 21,4% shares of Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI).

Bakrie and Brothers (BNBR) will sell 7,8% shares of Bakrieland Development and 4,2% shares of BUMI to pay the debt due to the economic crisis!!

Lets see what happen to Bakrie group Company, it is good or not!!

Indonesia Government set export price for Crude Palm Oil Price US$ 490,73 per metric ton (MT). With price under US$ 550 per ton then the CPO export tax still zero percent.

Next Export Price (HPE) for CPO product: from detikfinance

Fruit and kernel crude palm US$ 164/MT

CPO US$ 418/MT

Crude Olein US$ 501/MT

Crude Stearin US$ 337/MT

Crude Palm Kernel Oil (CPKO) US$ 436/MT

Crude Kernel Stearin US$ 436/MT

Crude Kernel Olein US$ 436/MT

RBD Palm Olein US$ 499/MT

TBD Palm Kernel Olein US$ 469/MT.

RBD Palm Kernel Stearin YS$ 677/MT

RBD Palm Stearin US$ 325/MT

RBD Palm Kernel Oil US$ 506/MT

RBD Palm Oil US$ 480/MT

Fatty Acid Methyl EstersUS$ 541/MT.


But still if you want to buy Crude Palm oil sector you must watch Oil price, BOOILINGER BAND OF AGRICULTURE SECTOR IS TIGHT NOW SO WATCH IT!!


Read More....

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Maddof Investor Suicide

US - Durable goods fell less than forecast in November, easing concern that business investment would plummet in coming months in response to the deepening credit freeze and slowing sales. Another Commerce report showed consumer spending adjusted for inflation rose 0.6 percent in November, the biggest increase in two years. The Labor Department reported the number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance last week rose to a 26-year high of 586,000.

Economists projected durables orders would fall 3 percent, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. After Big Three Automotives, many company request the government to help them with BAILOUT!! Everyone in the world wait until 20 January, wait for Obama decision to save World Economic condition!! PLAY SAVE!!

The co-founder of an investment advisory firm that lost $1.5 billion in the Madoff scandal was found dead Tuesday in an apparent suicide in his Manhattan office, police said. From Wall Street journal!!

Indonesia - Minister Of Finance estimate Deflation will be happen in December, because Oil price for transportation already down 10%. It will be the main contribution for inflation decline. Consumption will increase in case of The price oil is down. In January Bank of Indonesia indicate for decrease interest rate, it will be good for real sector. Hope this will reduce burden for Company!!. Bank sector is in HOT STOCK!!

Indonesia President said that The worst crisis point happened in 2009. In 2009 many company request for bailout, but The Government deny it. Soooo many people will jobless. First it hits The Company that it core business serve export!!

Read More....

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

MERRY XMAS

My money Rp 6.802.800
I calculate the commission at the time of selling shares

Total commission for buy and sell stock is 0,7%

My Stocks Now
BMRI (BANK Mandiri, BANK) 4 lots at price 2050

Please READ my Analysis!!
SELL Stock 23-12-2008
10 lots at price 1990 = 4 x 500 x 1990 = Rp 3.980.000-(0.7%*3.980.000)= Rp 3.952.140

My Stocks Now
NULL

My money Rp 10.754.940

Why I Sold BMRI??? Look HERE
  1. Next two days it is HOLIDAY OR XMAS day next NEW YEAR, The Window Dressing is over!!
  2. It's Already moved below CUP HANDLE line!!
  3. Three GREEN SOLDIER indicate BEAR trend!! Look Candlestick indicator
Read More....

Monday, December 22, 2008

WORLD NEWS 231208

News From BLOOMBERG and MYSELF!!

JAPAN— Toyota Motor, the Japanese auto giant, announced Monday that it expected the first loss in 70 years in its core vehicle-making business, underscoring how the economic crisis is spreading across the global auto industry.

Analysts said Toyota’s downward revision, its second in two months, showed that the worst financial crisis since the Depression is threatening not just the Big Three but even relatively healthy automakers in Japan, South Korea and Europe. Many other companies will also soon be reporting losses.

On Monday, Toyota said it expected a loss during the fiscal year of 150 billion yen, or $1.7 billion, in its group operating revenue, the amount it earns from its auto operations. Toyota said that would be its first operating loss since 1938, a year after the company was founded. The loss would also be a huge reversal from the 2.3 trillion yen, or $28 billion, in operating profit Toyota earned last fiscal year. The company, which has been neck and neck with General Motors to be the world’s largest vehicle-maker, said it still expected to eke out a narrow net profit in the current fiscal year, which ends March 31.

U.S. stocks fell, erasing last week’s advance, as a deteriorating outlook for corporate earnings and real estate offset expectations that government efforts to revive the economy will succeed.

Monsanto Co. lost 7.5 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the recession will hurt profit at the world’s largest producer of seeds. Walgreen Co., the second-biggest U.S. drugstore chain, sank 4.2 percent after posting the slowest sales growth in at least 18 years. MetLife Inc., the insurer invested in $36 billion worth of commercial mortgages, tumbled 12 percent as analysts said the number of U.S. non-residential properties at risk of default may triple.

Indonesia- Indonesia and China signed eight projects in the energy sectors of electricity, coal, and oil and gas. Signing RP35 trillion worth of projects is done today (22/12), witnessed by Vice President Jusuf Kalla and Deputy Prime Minister of China Li Keqiang on the sidelines of Indonesia-China Energy Forum (ICEF) to-3 in Jakarta.

Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Yusgiantor Purnomo said, this forum is very important for Indonesia and China in the face of economic challenges in the future following the crisis in the global market berimbas fluctuations in commodity prices and exchange rates.

Purnomo added that the project will be the eighth digarap later can absorb labor at least 32 thousand people. Eighth project is the extension of the production is done in Block Madura Strait between BP Migas with CNOOC and Husky, Madura Ltd. in the Madura Strait, East Java, worth U.S. $ 642 million.

It can be worst FOR ASII, ASII core product is selling TOYOTA product. If TOYOTA falls it can be worst!! Do not buy ASII, till next year!!

Now OIL price is 39$, worst worst worst for MINING SECTOR, WATCH IT WILL BE UNDER 35$ AGAIN!!

My ADVICE SELL your stock and enjoy your HOLIDAY!!



Read More....

CANDLESTICK SIGNAL

This is the best CANDLE STICK SIGNAL!!!

In BULLISH condition candlestick can tell "SELL SIGNAL", indicate that share price already reach it's TOP and will go DOWN!! The best candlestick SELL indicator are:
1. Hanging Man.
2. Shooting Star.
3. Three GREEN Soldier.

In BEARISH condition candlestick can tell "BUY SIGNAL", indicate that share price already reach it's BOTTOM and will go UP!! The best candlestick BUY indicator are:
1. Inverted Hammer.
2. Spinning Top Star.
3. Three RED Soldier.

You can change Green(+) and Red(-) candlestick with White(+) and Black(-) candlestick. You can change candlestick which marked by "circle" with Doji type!! CHECK HERE!!! Read More....

Sunday, December 21, 2008

CANDLESTICK

First Candlestick

There two kinds of CANDLESTICK, Green Candle and Red Candle. It can be White and Black candle. Long BODY indicate that in The Market happen strong BUY versus strong SELL. Short Candlestick show small price movements and consolidation. Long TAIL with no BODY indicate bull and bear are fight during trading time.

GREEN CANDLE, Green candle formed when opening price higher than closing price. It show that BUYER stronger that SELLER. Long Green Candle indicate BULLISH trend (Price will go UP).

RED CANDLE, Red candle formed when closing price higher than opening price. It show that SELLER stronger that BUYER. Long RED Candle indicate BEARISH trend (Price will go DOWN).
Read More....

Saturday, December 20, 2008

IHSG next target 1400??? What stock you must BUY!!

IHSG chart 19 Desember

You Must Play save until next year. Gain 5%-4% juts take it. IHSG will occur Profit Take in this week. Oil price now 42$, it must break into 50$. If it happen it's good for mining sector. I offer you to buy Coal sector and Crude Palm oil sector, like PTBA, ITMG, AALI, SGRO, TBLA, and ADRO.
BUT not buy BUMI why??? Meanwhile, Bumi Resources shares although obsess enough, but reminded the company is still very risky because it must resolve the Debt. For coal, shares of PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA) still THE BEST. And AALI for Palm sector.

Because GM and Chrysler saved by The US goverement, it very good for Indonesian automotives like ASII and UNTR!!

Analysis look PICTURE :
1. IHSG cannot Break CUP HANDLE.
2. Still in 50% RSI.
3. Will be GOLDEN CROSS.
4. Target 1400, watch with BIG VOLUME!!
5. Watch DOW JONES CONDITION TOO!!
Read More....

Dow Jones Condition 21th Desember



Dow will break up tomorrow why??
1. Oil Now Getting better 42$ after dropped into 33$.
2. US Government saved GM an Chrysler, with bailout but only until 31 march.
3. It Created CONE shape, wanna break up. Watch the volume okey!!
4. RSI (Relative Strength Index) will move above 50%.
5. GOLDEN CROSS will happend, MA30 will cross MA40 from bottom to top.
6. After one an half weeks Dow can not back below the MA30. VERY-VERY STRONG SUPPORT.
7. MA30 and Fibonacci 50% line exactly in the SAME line, it is 8600.

NEXT first UP target DOW will be 8800.
If DOW break down MA30 it could be DANGER!! First DOWN target will be 8400!!
SUCCESS ALL Read More....

GETTING BETTER Mining And Bank

General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC plan for thousand jobs cut before march 31 and make new contract with labour. What about FORD, it does not need any help from Goverment. Automotives sales slumped for the worst in 26 years. Goverment uses Bailout to pay loans. At Closing Market oil price jump out into 42$. GOOD!!

Indonesian News
The Capital Market Supervisory Agency and Financial Institution Prosecute in indonesian said BAPENPAM execute The Suspected who failed to pay mortgage (Repurchase Agreement / REPO) shares PT Bumi Resources (BUMI) and PT Danatama Management with it is customers as Rp. 2.2 billion.

Debt restructuring, the majority of PT Bakrie & Bothers Tbk (BNBR) worth a total of U.S. $ 1.2 billion has been agreed with creditors. Completion of the scheme is estimated to be complete before 25 December 2008. Darmawan Nirwan Bakrie, while the owner of the Bakrie group, said Bakrie & Brothers debt restructuring agreement reached through a combination of installment payment and extension of maturity until several years into the future. Becarefull NOT BUY THIS KIND OF STOCKS A LOT OF DEBT!!

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) acquisition of 100% the Bank UIB shares with value Rp 248.3 billion. Nice for NEXT trade, as i said before BANK sector still cannot break down cup handle. It will go ups AT MONDAY!!!
Read More....

Friday, December 19, 2008

GM and Chrysler saved until MARCH, and ELSE

The clock is ticking for General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC. The automakers have 102 days to slash debt, renegotiate labor contracts and lay plans to cut thousands of jobs or face a government-mandated bankruptcy.

The Bush administration threw them a $13.4 billion lifeline from the U.S. bank-bailout program, with $4 billion more for GM in February provided Congress expands that fund. In exchange, the government gets warrants that will allow it to profit if the rescue succeeds and seniority over much of the companies’ debt if the effort fails.

General Motors Corp. rallied 23 percent as Bush announced $13.4 billion in emergency loans for the largest U.S. automaker and rival Chrysler LLC. Ford Motor Co. jumped 3.9 percent, while car-parts supplier ArvinMeritor Inc. climbed 5.9 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased a 182-point advance as Citigroup Inc. slid 5.5 percent after its debt ratings were cut, while Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. retreated almost 3 percent as oil tumbled below $32 a barrel. Oil Price down to $32 indicate economic slower and in recession.

Japanese minister said that next year Japan economy growth only 0%.

California states in crisis, need fund help, can not pay workers!!

Now DOW JONES Industrial candle stick still in MA30, if it move below MA30 at MONDAY it could be dangerous so WATCH OUT!!!

News from Bloomberg and ME Read More....

DEAD CROSS



When MA30 line move from top to bottom and cut MA40 line that’s I call DEAD CROSS. You can use another MA lines, like MA5 and MA 10 for fast trade. Valid DEAD CROSS happened when MA30 line and MA40 line crossed above MA60 line. If MA30 line and MA40 line move below MA60 lines or crossed it, pleaseee CUT LOSS your shares, “DANGEROUS AHEAD”.
Read More....

Thursday, December 18, 2008

GOLDEN CROSS


When MA30 line move from bottom to top and cut MA40 line that’s I call GOLDEN CROSS. You can use another MA lines, like MA5 and MA 10 for fast trade. Valid GOLDEN CROSS happened when MA30 line and MA40 line crossed below MA60 line. If MA30 lines not back below GOLDEN CROSS point, just let your profit run.

Read More....

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

MOVING AVERAGES

The most popular method. A Moving Average is an indicator that shows the average value of a security's price over a period of time. When calculating a moving average, a mathematical analysis of the security's average value over a predetermined time period is made. As the security's price changes, its average price moves up or down. Moving averages can be calculated on any data series including a security's open, high, low, close,volume, or another indicator. A moving average of another moving average is also common. Im ussualy use MA30, MA40, MA60, and MA200 days volume.

Example :

For example, to calculate a 30-day moving average of ANTM: First, you would add ANTM's closing prices for the most recent 30 days. Next, you would divide that sum by 30; this would give you the average price of ANTM over the preceding 30 days. You would perform the same calculation tomorrow: add up the previous 30 days' closing prices, divide by 30, THAT’S MA30.

Read More....

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Why I Sold Half of my Stock, and keep Bank Mandiri Shares

I must sold TINS (Timah Tbk) in the morning, why because OVERALL MARKET still in SIDEWAYS. So i keep half of my money and The Profit I have is 9 percent from the initial capital. I want to play save.

Why I keep BMRI (Bank Mandiri) looks picture please :
  1. CUP and HANDLE position has been penetrating and still go UP.
  2. GOLDEN CROSS
  3. The Federal Reserve will cut its main interest rate to a record low as low as 0.25 percent, VERY-VERY GOOD FOR BANK SECTOR.
And I sold TINS because it did not establish CUP and HANDLE and GOLDEN CROSS!!
I set CUT LOSS for BMRI at 1990..
SAVE TRADING AND HAPPY TRADING!! CE U
Read More....

My Stock Position 16-12-2008 SELL A HALF??

My money Rp 844.800
I calculate the commission at the time of selling shares

Total commission for buy and sell stock is 0,7%

My Stocks Now
TINS (Timah Tbk, Mining) 10 lots at price 1100
BMRI (BANK Mandiri, BANK) 4 lots at price 2050

Please READ my Analysis!!
SELL Stock 16-12-2008
TINS (Timah Tbk, Mining)
10 lots at price 1100 = 10 x 500 x 1200 = Rp 6.000.000-(0.7*6.000.000)= Rp 5.958.000

My Stocks Now
BMRI (BANK Mandiri, BANK) 4 lots at price 2050

My money Rp 6.802.800

Why I KEEP BMRI???
  1. NOW, Window Dressing already happened in Indonesia, because now the end of the year every securities company want to increase their Annual Reports.
  2. Government again lower the price of fuel oil (fuel). Decrease time to apply this kind of a premium Rp5.000 per liter and diesel become Rp4.800 per liter.
  3. BANK INDONESIA will cut rate form 9,25%, after fuel price down!!
  4. IT'S GOLDEN CROSS MA30 crossed MA40 and still going up into MA 60!
  5. IHSG can not break it's support at 1250, it calls PULLBACK.
  6. OIL price already break it's resistant in 46$.
Read More....

Monday, December 15, 2008

My Stock Position 15-12-2008 IT'S TIME TO BUY

My write my anlysis in HERE!! PLEASE CHECK

My money Rp 10.444.800
I calculate the commission at the time of selling shares

Total commission for buy and sell stock is 0,7%

Please READ my Analysis!!
BUY Stock 15-12-2008
TINS (Timah Tbk, Mining) 10 lots at price 1100 = 10 x 500 x 1100 = Rp 5.500.000
BMRI (Bank Mandiri, Bank) 4 lots at price 2050 = 4 X 500 X 2050 = Rp 4.100.000

My money RP 844.800

My Stocks Now
TINS 10 lots at price 1100
BMRI 4 lots at price 2050


Why I buy this stock???
  1. NOW, Window Dressing already happened in Indonesia, because now the end of the year every securities company want to increase their Annual Reports.
  2. Government again lower the price of fuel oil (fuel). Decrease time to apply this kind of a premium Rp5.000 per liter and diesel become Rp4.800 per liter.
  3. BANK INDONESIA will cut rate form 9,25%, after fuel price down!!
  4. IT'S GOLDEN CROSS MA30 crossed MA40 and still going up into MA 60!
  5. IHSG can not break it's support at 1250, it calls PULLBACK.
  6. OIL price already break it's resistant in 46$.
Read More....

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Tomorrow, The price of Premium and Solar DOWN

Government again lower the price of fuel oil (fuel). Decrease time to apply this kind of a premium Rp5.000 per liter and diesel become Rp4.800 per liter. This decline started on Monday 15 December 2008 at 00.00 WIB.

The President of Indonesia disclose, views from the decrease in world oil prices, which tend to fall. "However, oil prices are difficult to predict, then we calculate this with subsidies and adjusted in our 2009 Budget," he added.

Unfortunately, however, the price of oil does not follow the decline in premium and diesel, still permanent roost in the price Rp2.500.

The Crisis not calm, also the Big 3 have not helped, the other will bankrupt too, so my advice for you to play quick.
IHSG right conditions are in the MA30 if tomorrow IHSG back UP again, it is time to collect! Because there is fuel down can the decrease in inflation. The fuel DOWN can support up to Window Dressing, IHSG closing the end of the year can reach 1400 SEEP! SUCCESS ALL Read More....

Saturday, December 13, 2008

RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI)


Overview
The Relative Strength Index ("RSI") is a very popular indicator. It used by many expert trader. It was first introduced by Welles Wilder in an article in Commodities (now known as Futures) Magazine in June, 1978. Step-by-step instructions on calculating and interpreting the RSI are also provided in Mr. Wilder's book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.

Interpretation
When Wilder introduced the RSI, he recommended using a 14-day RSI. Since then, the 9-day and 25-day RSIs have also gained popularity. Because you can vary the number of time periods in the RSI calculation. I always use 30-day RSI. You can use 100-day RSI for long term play.

The RSI have ranges between 0% and 100%. The RSI usually tops above 70% and bottoms below 30%. If RSI moved from 100% to 70% and touch 50%it is an indication of BEARISH, if RSI moved from 0% to 30% and touch 50% it is an indication of BULLISH. The Best Stocks to buy always move above 50%.

Formula
RSI= 100- [100/ {1+ (UP/DOWN) } ]
UP = Average of upward price change
DOWN = Average of downward price change Read More....

Friday, December 12, 2008

World markets drop on rejection of US auto bailout

News from BLOOMBERG, BIZ Thestar, and from Myself!!

IMPORTANT please. It will be strike to other sector!! Becarefull and SAFE TRADING!! WATCH OUT it could be week from collapse, so don't buy automotives sector stocks!!


The bankruptcy of any of the big American automakers would deal another blow to the world’s largest economy, already in recession, and ripple through export-dependent Asia, as well as global financial markets.


"The automobile sector is a fundamental industry for both the U.S. and Japan, and a failure would be a major blow to Japan as well,’’ said Nagayuki Yamagishi, a strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities in Tokyo. “The bailout failure is just the beginning.’’


Wall Street was poised to fall as well, with Dow Jones industrial index futures down 224 points, or 2.6 percent, at 8,373 and S&P 500 futures down 31.30 points, or 3.6 percent, to 843.20.


Hopes for the US auto industry now appear to rest with President George W. Bush agreeing to tap a $700 billion Wall Street bailout fund to aid the carmakers. General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC have said they could be weeks from collapse. Ford Motor Co. says it does not need federal help now, but its survival is far from certain.


”If a company such as General Motors filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection it could strike the Dow below 8,000 again,’’ said Jackson Wong, investment manager at Tanrich Securities in Hong Kong.


‘Chain Reaction’ to another country

Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average tumbled 484.68 points, or 5.6 percent, to 8,235.87, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slid 5.5 percent to 14,758.39.


In Europe, Britain’s FTSE 100 was down 2.7 percent at 4,271.85, Germany’s DAX was down 3.6 percent and France’s CAC 40 slid 4 percent.


Daimler lost 4.8 percent to 23.90 euros and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG fell 1 percent to 22.22 euros.


Honda, Japan’s second-largest automaker, tumbled 12 percent to 1,921 yen, the largest drop since Oct. 31. Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea’s No. 1 automaker, fell 9.3 percent to 42,000 won.


Indonesian biggest automotives stock ASII down 8.8 percent and hit MA30 line, it could be worst!! Read More....

My Stock Position 12-12-2008

My money Rp 10.800.800
I calculate the commission at the time of selling shares

Total commission for buy and sell stock is 0,7%

Please READ my Analysis!!
BUY Stock 12-12-2008
UNSP 20 lots at 270 = 20 x 500 x 270 = Rp 2.700.000
TINS 10 lots at 1120 = 10 x 500 x 1120 = Rp 5.600.000

My money RP 2.500.800

SELL Stock 12-12-2008
UNSP 20 lots at 260 = 20 x 500 x 260 = Rp 2.600.000- (0.7%*2.600.000)=2.581.800
TINS 10 lots at 1080 = 10 x 500 x 1080 = Rp 5.400.000- (0.7%*5.400.000)=5.362.200

My money Now RP 10.444.800

My Stocks Now
NONE

Why I sell
TINS and UNSP today, because :
TINS and UNSP break below MA30 line, its very dangerous and i already warned you yesterday. If i did'nt sell, at the time of closing market look UNSP and TINS price drop very quickly. UNSP price now is 250, and TINS price is 1050. It will be fall in monday , be caution my friend!!!! THX!! GOD BLESS ALL!! Read More....

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Becareful DANGEROUS TODAY

Fron Star News

Claims for jobless benefits in US at 26-year highLatest News

New claims for jobless benefits surged last week to a 26-year high and came in worse than expectations that were already gloomy - and economists say the figures would get even worse without an auto industry bailout.

Wall Street tumbles on auto bailout worriesLatest News

Wall Street's anxiety about Detroit automakers welled up Thursday, sending stocks sharply lower in an afternoon sell-off as investors grew fearful that a bill to rescue the companies wouldn't make it through the Senate.

Oil prices near US$48 a barrel as dollar fallsLatest News

Oil prices rose 10 percent Thursday as the value of the dollar sank further and investors dumped money into crude markets.


IDX can be drown today just be caution. Resistant of oil price 46$ already break ups, next target of oil price is 50$. Its GOOD for Mining sector, but bad for Automotives sector!! But today trader doin profit take after three day UP!! Happy Invest all!! Read More....

I Will TINS why???


Tomorrow I will buy TINS at price 1120. Why I do that???

  1. TINS Already break out at 10/12/2008 with high volume. Then return to MA30 today!!
  2. RSI line already rise above 50% RSI (Relative Strength Index) . And return to 50%!
  3. IF MA30 and 50%RSI not Break down tomorrow, BUY IT PLEASEE!!
  4. MA30 line cut MA40 from bottom to top, below MA60 line it says GOLDEN CROSS!!!
  5. Oil price going up 45$ now, But resistant in 46$ must break.
  6. IN 17 December, OPEC will reduce oil production, it can increase OIL price!!!
First target price is 1239 Look at The Picture!!
You must set stop lost below MA30!!
Read More....

Tomorrow I BUY UNSP why???


Tomorrow I will buy UNSP at price 270. Why I do that???

  1. UNSP will break out or up tomorrow at 270. if not break I won't BUY!!!!!!!
  2. MA30 line will break.
  3. RSI line already rise above 50% RSI (Relative Strength Index) .
  4. The other Agriculture sector already rised above MA30!!
  5. Oil price going up 45$ now, But resistant in 46$ must break.
  6. IN 17 December, OPEC will reduce oil production, it can increase OIL price!!!
First target price is 350 Look at The Picture!!
Read More....

My Stock Position 11-12-2008

My money Rp 5.537.900
I calculate the commission at the time of selling shares

Total commission for buy and sell stock is 0,7%

Please READ my Analysis!!
My Stocks Now
ASII 1 lots at 9450 = 1 x 500 x 9450 = Rp 4.725.000

SELL Stock 11-12-2008
ASII 1 lots at 10600 = 1 x 500 x 10600 = Rp 5.300.000 - (0.7%*5.300.000)= 5.262.900

My money Now RP 10.800.800

Why I sell ASII
today, because :
  • US senate stall bailout for GM motor, so GM motor shares went down abaout 6% yesterday.
  • Tommorow is friday, which often occur profit take (Indonesian Stock Market Behavior)!
Read More....

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

NEWS Automotive Sector GO UPSSS

News from Bloomberg and Indonesian's Post.

Certainty about the policy it will bailout the U.S. automotive sector raises hopes for the global economy. Especially for the automotive sector encourage the increase of Hangseng n Nikkei. Because all automotive sector encourage index, ASII stock will still go ups tommorow.

General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. gained more than 4 percent as Congress nears a vote on the plan. Newmont Mining Corp. and Marathon Oil Corp. climbed more than 5 percent as copper, gold and crude prices increased. Eastman Kodak Co., the 128-year-old photography company, slid 9 percent as the deepening recession forced it to reduce forecasts. Asian shares advanced, while Europe’s regional index was little changed.

The potential rescue of the car industry “has lessened some concern that we’re going to have a massive layoffs, greater strains on the banks, that domino affect,” said Peter Sorrentino, a money manager at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati, which oversees about $16 billion. “That has buoyed the market.”

But you must remember The other sector is still danger position, This is only the beginning.


Read More....

My Stock Position 10-12-2008

My money Rp 275.000
I calculate the commission at the time of selling shares

Total commission for buy and sell stock is 0,7%

Please READ my Analysis!!
My Stocks Now
ANTM 10 lots at 1000 = 10 x 500 x 1000 = Rp 5.000.000
ASII 1 lots at 9450 = 1 x 500 x 9450 = Rp 4.725.000

SELL Stock 10-12-2008
ANTM 10 lots at 1060 = 10 x 500 x 1060 = Rp 5.300.000 - (0.7%*5.300.000)= 5.262.900
Why I sell ANTM now because the volume when break up the cone is not high enough, very different with ASII, when it break up ASII had very-very high volume!! Read More....

My Stock Position 09-12-2008

I'm sorry I late to show what stock I bought?? Look this:
My money Rp 10.000.000
I calculate the commission at the time of selling shares

Please READ my Analysis!!
Buy ANTM 10 lots at 1000 = 10 x 500 x 1000 = Rp 5.000.000
Buy ASII 1 lots at 9450 = 1 x 500 x 9450 = Rp 4.725.000

My money remaining RP 275.000
Read More....

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

ASII BEST BUY TODAY WHY????


Tomorrow can fly again! WHYYY???

  1. High volume, twice of average!!
  2. Candle sticks BreakUP the MA30 line.
  3. The head cone is Break to the top.
  4. RSI line went up penetrate the 50% RSI line.
  5. Oil price still 43$
  6. BBM Will go down in the January 2009!!

When it sell?
Take Profit I in 10300 (resistant 1).
Take Profit II in 12700 (resistant 2).
I suggest you sell in TPI because Overall market in The WORLD are in BEARISH POSITION!!
I allways sell when it reach over 5% from the price i buy when The Market is Bearsih!!

When you Cut Loss??? Its very Important!!
I buy at 9450, I set my CL (Cut Loss) at 9000, it's below 5% from the price I buy!!
But Believe me when its already BREAKOUT with high volume, it will not go down quickly!!
Lets Check Tommorow (10/10/2008) OKEY!! Read More....

Monday, December 8, 2008

Tommorow I BUY ANTM why???


Tomorrow I will buy ANTM at price 1010. Why I do that???

  1. Antm will break out tomorrow at 1010.
  2. Cone will break up by green candle stick,
  3. MA30 line will break.
  4. 50% RSI (Relative Strength Index) line will break up.
  5. Oil price going up 44$, But resistant in 46$ must break.
IT’s very-very good chance to buy stock TOMORROW. Please see the picture!!! Read More....

Sunday, December 7, 2008

What is Stock?

learn about stocksStock is evidence of ownership a company. You have the rights to have devidens and and has the rights to manage the policy and the way the company, depending on the size of your shares. If you have only one lot, your rights to manage the company did not apply because the shares are owned by very small, but you still receive dividends.

The purchase of shares must be done on 500 sheets is also called with 1 lot. You can get profit from Capital Gain and Devidens. Example, buy shares A with a price of 500, and shares A are sold with the price of 600. The Difference 100 is called the Capital Gain. Dividend rights are received from the company's profit results, it can be in the form of money and stocks.

How do I buy shares? You must register on The Broker Companies which registered in the IDX (Indonesia Stock Exchange). If there are companies that are not listed in IDX, The Company is illegal. I tell you this is very dangerous.


Finally, if you do not know anything about stocks and so forth. Do not use all your money in the stock market, you will suffer losses. For beginners use money to appropriate at least limit the money that is required to register at the securities company.

Read More....

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Learn Your Investor Profile

Made by allstarstocks. I got 41 points, i am "Moderate". Please answer the question below and then you know that you are an Aggressive Investor, a Conservative Investor or somewhere in between?

Please answer the following questions:
1. I expect to start withdrawing money from my investments for basic necessities in:
A. The next two years
B. Three to five years
C. Six to 10 years
D. Ten to 15 years
E. More than 15 years
2. Over the next 10 years and beyond, it is:
A. Very important that my investments grow in value
B. Somewhat important that my investments grow in value
C. Unimportant whether or not my investments grow in value.
3. My knowledge of investments is:
A. None
B. Limited
C. Good
D. Extensive
4. When making decisions on how to invest my money, I am
A. Most concerned about the possibility of my investment losing value
B. Equally concerned about the possibility of my investment losing or gaining value
C. Most concerned about the possibility of my investment gaining value
5. Regarding my investment returns, I am
A. Very concerned about short-term losses
B. Somewhat concerned about short-term losses
C. Only mildly concerned about short-term losses
D. Unconcerned about short-term losses
6. Which of these investments do you own or have you owned in the past
(select all that apply):
A. Money market funds/cash equivalents
B. Bonds/bond funds
C. Stocks/stock funds
D. International securities/funds
7. What would be your reaction if the stock market dropped by 25% in value over a three- month period and a stock you own also dropped by 25% in value?
A. Sell all my shares
B. Sell some of my shares
C. Keep all my shares
D. Buy more shares
8. Review the annual returns of the three hypothetical investment plans below. Based on the range of possible outcomes, which plan would be most acceptable to you based on your investment philosophy, objectives, and threshold for risk?
Investment Plans
A. Average annual return: 5%. Worst case one-year scenario: -5%. Best case one-year scenario: +15%
B. Average annual return: 7.5%. Worst case one-year scenario: -12%. Best case one-year scenario: +22%
C. Average annual return: 10%. Worst case one-year scenario: -25%. Best case one-year scenario: +40%

Scoring Your Test What kind of investor are you--conservative, moderate or aggressive?

Question, Answer Points.
1 A 0, B 5, C 10, D 12, E 15
2 A 10, B 5, C 0.
3 A 0,B 1,C 2,D 3
4 A 0,B 8,C 15
5 A 0,B 4,C 7,D 10
6 (If you pick more than one answer, count the points that you choose) A 0, B 3, C 4, D 5.
7 A 0, B 5, C 10, D 15
8 A 0, B 10, C 20

Total (add up all scores from all categories): ____________

Your personal profile:
88-100
Aggressive. Aggressive investors tend to be long-term oriented and are interested in the maximum possible growth of assets. They have little or no interest in taxable income. Some year to year volatility is acceptable in exchange for potentially high long-term returns.
65-87
Moderately Aggressive. These investors are also focused on the long term, and are looking for good growth, but have little or no need for taxable currrent income. Some risk with part of the portfolio is acceptable in return for the long-term growth potential that the stock market offers.
40-64
Moderate. These are generally long-term oriented investors with little or no need for taxable current income. They prefer reasonable but stable investment growth. Some fluctuations are tolerable, but they typically diversify with other investments to help mitigate volatility from their stock holdings.
25-39
Moderately Conservative. These investors covet current income, safety and stability, but also see the need for some long-term growth—if for no other reason than to offset the effects of inflation. They are more heavily-weighted in fixed income investments, but also hold a diversified portfolio of stocks.
0-24
Conservative (and Short Term). Preservation of capital is the primary concern of conservative and short-term investors. They tend to prefer fixed income, short-term, and tax-advantaged investments, but also allocate some assets to stocks as part of a well-diversified portfolio.
Read More....

Thursday, December 4, 2008

The First Thing You Should Know

If you do not want to play successfully in the stock and does not want to learn the stock market better close this blog. But if you want to continue learning to study with me, and we will be successful together. I tell that there is no quick way so rich through stock market, when rich quick, loss also as fast or even faster. This is very dangerous, therefore we will help each other with this blog.
Examples in my blog using The Indonesian Stock Exchange or Jakarta Composite Exchange (JSX), but can be implemented on any stock market. Trust ME =D!!

This blog contains about:
1. How do I choose a good stock to benefit.
2. Summary of books from the author's famous book shares.
3. News relating to the stock market.
4. Notice important thing about The Market Condition.
5. Help solve the problem.
6. Shares in the transaction by the author's blog.
7. Knowing Your Investor Profile.

Thats All!!! Read More....