BAKRIE TIMEEE

Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) gain 80 points only one week. This happen because a lot of money from foreigner got in to IHSG as big as Rp 2.329 billion. Now IHSG in level 2.614 and break strong resistance at 2535. Next target will be 2700.

Despite the negative had closed the trading day on the third and fourth, but the rush of foreign capital flows in making a purchase, pushing local investors in droves follow-up collect stock. Stock prices had suffered considerable increase, especially in stock which has LARGE CAPITALISM.

Based on trade data Indonesia Stock Exchange, Bakrie company stocks controlled the market transaction. 55 percent from all volume of transaction in IHSG controlled with BAKRIE GROUP. Such as PT Bakrie Telecom Tbk (BTEL), PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (BNBR) PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI), PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY), PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk (ENRG).

Looks like now time for BAKRIE TO MOVE UP!!! My suggestion do not trust100 percent on Bakrie Company because they are very volatile. UP fast, DOWN FASTER than UP. Becareful if foreigner reject their money from bakrie it will fall down again. Play fast in HERE one day till one week playing. Careful your behavior can kill you in the other time.

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SUMMARY of Stock Exchange and WORLD Economy Prediction 2009

2009 World Economy Prediction that I made at 1 January 2009 here:

1. Great Depression, worst since 1930. Many bank and BIG company got bankrupt like General motor, Ford, Citi Bank, AXA, etc. Happened large scale fraud by the financial institutions like Maddof company. Truly Happened.

2. Oil price sideways 35$ - 44$ to 60$ - 75$. Now oil price in 79$. Still Stable. Truly Happened.

3. Gold price goes up slowly into 1000$, begin in about 600$ now 1079$. It has been increased about 80%. SURELY AND SLOWLY!!! Truly Happened.

4. US, Europe, and Japan show an economic slowdown in 2009. Truly Happened. Economy get better in the middle of year 2009. Check picture below Japan stock exchange (Nikkei 255) :

5. 2009 will be one of the worst economic periods in U.S. history. Truly Happened. That only happened in two early period than its move slowly up. Check Picture below :

6. Economy 2009 for Developing Countries in the area to be 4-5 percent growth. Indonesia economy grow about 4.3 percent this year! Truly Happened.

7. More Trouble Finding or Keeping A Job in 2009. Many person till this time will be unemployment. Truly Happened.

MY Advice at first 2009 here, said that chose Mining sector as PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk), ANTM (Aneka Tambang Tbk), TINS (Timah Tbk). Or Crude Palm Oil sector Like AALI (Astra Agro Lestari Tbk) and SGRO (Sampoerna Agro Tbk).

TINS : Price 1260 (January 2009) è Price 2000 (December 2009).

ANTM : Price 1230 (January 2009) è Price 2200 (December 2009).

PTBA : Price 7850 (January 2009) è Price 17250 (December 2009).

AALI : Price 11750 (January 2009) è Price 22750 (December 2009).

SGRO : Price 1310 (January 2009) è Price 2700 (December 2009).

They all increase more than 75% since January price. Truly Happened.

MY OWN PORTFOLIO First 2009 and Last 2009 :

In January 2009 My money Rp 10.754.940 and NOW RP 21.544.035. It was increase about 100%. I used safe middle term investing.

ALL means during the year 2009 my way to work right enough^^. HOPE IN 2010 I CAN HELP YOU AGAIN!!!! Nice and safe trading

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IHSG VERY VOLATILE

Monday(21 December 09), IHSG (Indonesia stock exchange) drop 79 point (3.08%) worst all over the world. And now at Thursday (22 December 09) it rising 36 point(1,49%) to level 2.467,637. LQ45 Index rise 7.923 points (1.65%) now at 486.348. Mining stock index rose highest then the other sector now at 34.559 point. Today (22 December 09) IHSG rising highest in Asia.

CHECK RED TEXT ABOVE, that’s indicate IHSG IS THE MOST VOLATILE STOCK EXCHANGE IN ASIA. Or I can say now still don’t know to go UP or DOWN. Be careful just play fast and do not throw all your money into this kind of market condition.

My suggestion choose mining sector. Whyyy??? Until this month mining sector is still a champion in trade transactions in the Indonesian capital market, with 39% of contribution. PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO), PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR), PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) choose that stocks.

As many as 2/3 of the total capital market investors until now is dominated by foreign investors.

Last things you must know, do not buy Bakrie’s company like BUMI, UNSP, ENRG, DEWA. These kind of stock do not have strong fundamental and the velocity of money come from bank loan. Now Bakrie can not pay tax as big as 2,1 billion rupiah.

Find LQ45 company the best one for investment like : AALI, ASII, UNTR, PTBA, ITMG, INCO

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BAD political condition = BAD IHSG

Indonesia stock exchange now in stagnant shape. Three tops formed at price 2524. Looks like that price is STRONG RESISTANCE. Sees how the volume of transaction getting low and lower. Many analyst says that I happen because political condition in Indonesia not good. Scandal of BANK century drag finance minister and vice president of Indonesia to take responsibility of that problem. Many foreign investor does not trust the political condition, so they took their money back.

Because formed three tops, if candlestick move below price 2392, it could be dangerous, sell all YOUR STOCK.

Technical condition show SIDEWAYS:

-Three Tops strong resistant 2525

-Relative Strength Index still Above 50%

-Momentum still going UP

-Moving Average 30, 40, 60 days move FLAT

-Bollinger band move FLAT

My suggestion PLAY FAST and CHOOSE LQ45 STOCK FOR DAY TRADE!!! Like:

-PGAS 3900-3975

-BBCA 4800-4850

-INDF 3200-3250

-SMCB 1520-1550

Do not put all your money okey??? Just half of it!! CUU AND HAPPY TRADING.

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Buy BUMI or NOT????

What share that is good to buy in December 2009?? Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) getting more volatile or unstable. Bakrie group which RULE IHSG in 2007 – 2009, now it does not happen again. In 2007 BUMI (Bumi Resources Tbk) became pioneer stock market rise, but in this December or last months it still stuck in the low level.

What will you do NOW?? BUY it again n hope it will rise in 2010?? Because many people say it’s cheap!! Cheap can go cheaper, HIGH can go HIGHER. AS I SAID THERE IS NOW LOW OR HIGH in stock market, only GOOD PRICE or BAD PRICE.

GOOD PRICE. Do not care even if the price of the purchased on HIGH level or LOW level but the price going UP after you buy it. Good analysis.

BAD PRICE. Do not care even if the price of the purchased on HIGH level or LOW level but the price going DOWN after you buy it. Need study again.

Many friends of mine asked me like this “is BUMI still worth to buy or not?? ” As I said for a short term is still good but not buy in the middle of political mess. Compared with the other stock in the same sector (COAL), BUMI now in LOW LEVEL and the other like ITMG and PTBA in HIGH LEVEL. Looks pictures below:

Many person when see this picture they think like this. PTBA and ITMG had returned to above price, and BUMI had not, so I will buy BUMI and hope it will go to 8000 point. That is wrong decision, there must be something wrong with BUMI fundamental, if it leader of IHSG so it must reach 8000 now, but it don’t.

My suggestion buys BUMI but not wait till 800 point to sell, play save and just sell it when it reach 3500 point. THE LAST DO NOT CHOOSE ANY STOCK LIKE THIS FOR LONG TERM!!

THANKS VERY MUCH HOPE IT WILL HELP YOU OUT, HAPPY TRADING MY FRIEND. Read More....

Suggested stock 23 november untill 26 november

!!!For Indonesia stock exchange ONLYY!!!

What is good stock to buy in the SIDEWAYS TREND??

ANTM. SIDEWAYS

-Fast Day Trade, Buy 2350 Sell 2400/2425

-Long trade, first buy 2350, second buy 2425. Sell 2700.

TINS. SIDEWAYS

- Fast trade. Buy 1960. Sell 2000

-Long Trade. First buy 2020, second 2050.

SGRO. SIDEWAYS ON THE TOP

-Fast trade. Buy 2350. Sell 2425

-there is no long trade because stock is on the TOP.

BUMI. BULL

-Buy it when reach MA30, 2600-2650 point. Sell 3000 next 3300. Cut loss at 2500.

UNSP. BULL

-If back into MA30, BUY it (770 point). Sell 880.

INCO not recommended to buy

-already in DOWN TREND you must sell, and change into the other good stock.

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Dow bull but IHSG still side

Check here http://ssstock.blogspot.com/2009/11/play-save-my-friend.html

I told you before that Dow will from small Bear, it already happened. How I predict it?? It is very simple. -Look A line, when candlestick reach that line, always back down. A line it’s a good and strong resistance.

-Look B circle MACD (Technical line), distance between red line and blue line already wide, need to get closer again.

Now candlestick moved down into moving average 30 days. BUY when reach MA30, and set sell stop 5% below it.

Technical condition show BULLISH, why:

-Relative strength index still above 50% line

-Momentum 200 days also above momentum MA 200days.

-All moving average move up UP UP.

DOW JONES STILL MOVES UP!!!

How about IHSG (Indonesia Stock Exchange):

-Relative Strength index POOR

-MACD POOR

-All Moving Average 30, 40, 60 days, even Bollinger band show SIDEWAYS position.

-Only momentum 200days indicate bull trend.

Conclusion, IHSG still slow BULL in annual period because momentum 200days show that. But in monthly period still SIDEWAYS.

My suggestion buy but not will all your money, buy 50% and spend 50% again when IHSG move above 2530 point (BIG RESISTANCE).

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THE BIGGEST BEAR!!!

WORLD NEWS

Japan Stock Exchange today (24 February) decreased due slumped Nomura Holdings stock. Nomura Holdings shares weakening because of the financial reports that the company would increase stock prices, with a total of all nominal shares worth 3.3 billion dollars. The policy is the first time in the last 20 years.

U.S. exchanges last yesterday (24 February) was the lowest since records impairment last 12 years. Increasing concerns about the condition of the financial sector again increased due investors pessimistic against nationalization policies Citigroup.

THE MAINLY PRESSURE come from the technology sector after Morgan Stanley predicted a lower PC sales for 2009 and 2010, caused by a decrease in prices and weak demand. Hewlett Packard slumped to level of 6.3% to $ 29.28; Intel weakened 5.5% to $ 12.08 level, and Apple down 4.66% to $ 86.95 level.

AIG likely to go bankrupt if no more funding from the government. AIG needs additional funds to operate.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS for DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL!!!

Check picture!!

I already told you before at 16 February, that DOW will slumped and it TRULLY HAPPENED. Check here!!

1.MA ( Moving Average )30 and MA40 already crossed by candlestick from top to bottom.

2.Already DEAD CROSS!!

3.Now its Moves DOWNSIDE THE BOX or under 7941 point, VERY-VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION!!

4.RSI(Relative Strength Index) reach 30%!!

5.CCI(Commodity Channel Index) now below in -150 line!!!

6.THREE RED SOLDIER, that indicate BEAR!!

JUST WAIT N SEE, keep your money!!

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DANGEROUS BEARISH

FUNDAMENTAL ANALIYSIS!!!

News from Bloomberg

WORLD - Finance chiefs from the Group of Seven nations joined the chorus of U.S. investors and lawmakers pushing Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to move faster to fix the banking system.

The G-7 finance ministers and central bankers want Geithner, 47, to tackle a U.S. credit crisis that lies at the heart of the worst global recession since World War II. Bank stocks, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index, have fallen 30 percent this year and ended last week lower than before Geithner presented his rescue plan on Feb 10.

The group said it rejected protectionism even amid signs some of its members are shielding their industries to the detriment of rivals. The statement softened previous calls for China to accelerate gains in its currency by saying it welcomed the country’s steps to bolster growth. That should help “lead to a continued appreciation” of the yuan, the G-7 said.

Japan - Economic prospects are still deteriorating. Japan’s economy, the world’s second largest, shrank at an annual 12.7 percent pace in the fourth quarter, the most since the 1974 oil shock, the government said today. Companies from Microsoft Corp. to Nissan Motor Co. are cutting jobs, U.S. stocks fell last week by the most since November, and the World Bank said Feb. 13 the crisis may kill as many as 400,000 more babies every year until 2015 as poverty spreads.

Legal & General Group Plc dropped almost 6 percent on speculation the insurer is in talks with the Financial Services Authority over the amount of money it should set aside for defaults in its bond portfolio. Takefuji Corp. slid 9.5 percent after Japan’s third-biggest consumer lender forecast a full-year loss and the country’s gross domestic product contracted at an annual 12.7 percent pace. CRH Plc fell 5.2 percent in Dublin on concern the company may be considering a rights offer.

U.S. markets will be closed today for Presidents’ Day.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS for DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL!!!

1.MA ( Moving Average )30 and MA40 already crossed by candlestick from top to bottom.

2.Already DEAD CROSS!!

3.Now its Moves DOWNSIDE THE BOX or under 7941 point, VERY-VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION!!

4.RSI(Relative Strength Index) line moves below 50%, will reach 30%!!

5.CCI(Commodity Channel Index) still below in -100 line!!!

MY SUGGESTION DO NOT BUY ANYTHING UNTIL REACH 8385 POINT!!!
TOMMOROW I WILL SELL MY ANTM STOCKS BECAUSE it already moved below MA30!!

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HOLD n WAIT FOR BAILOUT PLAN!!

Click Picture to Enlarge!!

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS!!

US - Wall Street financial gain strong gain after the analyst reports that the concerns of the Bank of America does not make sense, because The CASH flow IS Positive and threatened not to go bankrupt.

Overall, the stock market GAIN triggered by hope that the economic stimulus of $ 937 billion is now being discussed by the Senate and the program 'bad bank' plan which will be disclosed MINISTER OF FINANCE Timothy Geithner on the upcoming Monday. BULL market rally this time occurred in the midst of indications that the U.S. economy was very weak: NFP shows that there are 598,000 people who lost their jobs, the highest since 1974 and the unemployment rate jumped to 7.6% from the level of 7.2% in December.

Outlook BAD corporation can also be seen from the Hartford Financial record loss, Toyota estimates that annual losses, and GE lost a AAA rating. However, positive sentiment STIMULUS plan and The BAD BANK stock to be driving the positive territory.

Late in the day, federal regulators announced the closure of First Bank Financial Services in Georgia, the seventh failure this year of a federally insured bank.

At its core, the legislation is designed to ease the worst economic recession in generations and combines hundreds of billions of dollars in new spending with tax cuts.

Because of that, Democratic senators and a handful of moderate Republicans reached a compromise late Friday on a scaled-back $780-billion economic stimulus plan.

Dow still in good position until VOTE for BAILOUT is OVER, wait till next week!!

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

1.WATCH it will cross MA30!!

2.CANDLESTICK already crossed middle line of Bollinger Band!!

3.CCI (Commodity Channel Index) will reach -100!!

4.RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 50%!!

5.Volume getting HIGHER

It will BULL!!!

Still Hold Your Stock till next week!! Set cut loss 5% below your buy point! If you unsure about it, sell a half of your stock tomorrow!! Watch Profit take tomorrow on IHSG (Indonesia Stock Exchange)

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World News, Analysis and Bad Volume

Click Picture to Enlarge!!!

FUNDAMENTAL ANALIYSIS!!!

China - Increase of Hong Kong stock index (Hang Seng) is still due to report of the Chinese government that will provide the economic stimulus package for the Industrial sector. One industry sector that will get BIG HELP is the metal industry. Based on the statement issued by the government, the plan will be issued a fund of 585 billion dollars to the industrial sector. According to the Chinese government, this step taken to speed up the recovery process in The China real sector.

Japan – Increase of Japan Stock Exchange today because of The Exporters Company stocks Increase due to yen weakening against the dollar.

US – There is a sign of recovery in the property sector, where pending home sales jumped 6.3% in December, which is the first time since August.

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Executives of companies receiving federal bailout money will have their pay capped at $500,000 under a financial compensation plan that President Barack Obama is expected to announce Wednesday, two senior administration officials said.

Under the president's plan, companies that want to pay their executives more than $500,000 will have to do so through stocks that cannot be sold until the companies pay back the money they borrow from the government, according to administration officials.

U.S. Companies Cut 522,000 Jobs in January, Fewer Than Estimated!!

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!!!

1.MA30 and MA40 already crossed by candlestick from top to bottom.

2.Now its reaching MA60, if moved below it IT BEAR TIME.

3.RSI(Relative Strength Index) line moves below 50%!!

4.CCI(Commodity Channel Index) still in -100 line!!!

5.THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS THE VOLUME IS HALF THAN THE AVERAGE.

MY SUGGESTION DO NOT BUY ANYTHING UNTIL THE BIG VOLUME IS BACK!!!

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DOW IS BEARISH POSITION

FUNDAMENTAL

(Bloomberg) The US economy is in a deepening recession. The number of Americans filing first- time claims for unemployment benefits matched the highest level in 26 years. Initial jobless claims increased by 62,000 to 589,000, more than forecast, in the week ended Jan. 17, from a revised 527,000 the prior week, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington.

(MarketWatch) Construction on new homes took another turn for the worse in December, falling more than 15% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 550,000, the lowest on record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Permits to build single-family homes fell 12.3% to a record-low 363,000 in December, while total permits including apartments dropped 10.7% to a 549,000 annual rate, also a record low. Building permits are considered a more reliable guide to the state of the housing market, because they are less affected by weather conditions than the housing starts figures.

The report was much worse than expected for the second consecutive month. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a smaller drop to an annual rate of about 600,000, thinking that November's 15% decline in starts wouldn't be repeated.

(New York Times) The Microsoft Corporation, the software company, said Thursday that it would cut 5,000 jobs, about 5 percent of its work force, fallout from a slowdown in sales brought on by the global recession.

The company also reported that its profit in the second quarter declined 11 percent.

“While we are not immune to the effects of the economy,” the chief executive, Steven A. Ballmer said Thursday in the company’s earnings report.

Microsoft also reported second-quarter net income of $4.17 billion, or 47 cents a share, compared with $4.71 billion, or 50 cents, in the quarter a year earlier. Sales were $16.6 billion in quarter. Wall Street had expected earnings of 49 cents a share on sales of $17.1 billion.

TECHNICAL

Click Picture to ENLARGE!!

BEARISH TREND

1.RSI below 50%.

2.CCI below -100.

3. Far below MA30, MA40, and middle Bollinger Band.

4. THREE RED SOLDIER

SO MY SUGGESTION DO NOT BUY ANY STOCKS RIGHT NOW!! JUST SLEPP

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WARNING WARNING BEARISH IS COME

SET CUT LOSSS
DOW IS IN BEARISH POSITION!! Have been predicted by me LOOK HERE
1.Five REDS CANDLESTICK
2.CCI reach -100
3.MA30, MA40, and MA60 crossed by BIG RED CANDLESTICK


I SET MY ANTM STOCKS CUT LOSS POSITION AT 1120
My money Rp5.486.365

I calculate the commission at the time of selling shares

Total commission for buy and sell stock is 0,7%

My Stocks
ANTM 10 lots at price 1150

SELL ANTM (Aneka Tambang Tbk)
10 lots at price 1100 = 10 x 500 x 1100 = 5.500.000-(0.007*5.500.000)= 5.461.500

My Stocks Now - NULL

My Money NOW Rp 10.947.865

Why i must sell :
If I not set CUTLOSS ANTM PRICE NOW IS 1060!!
MA30, MA40, and MA60 crossed by BIG RED CANDLESTICK
FOUR RED CANDLESTICK!!
Oil Price down to 36$
Warning do not BUY any stock Right NOW!!!
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Small BULL

Click Picture to Enlarge!!

Dow Jones Industrial already moved above MA60, next target 9500

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is above 50%!

GOLDEN CROSS, if DOW industrial going up into 9250!

Three White Soldier to confirm small BULL!

Also BOOLINGER band get very tight, and candlestick crossed top line, FURTHER will be BULL!

Commodity Channel Index (CCI) moved above 100, If Monday touch 200, CONFIRM BULL!

FED's plan to cut interest rates into 0.1%

Oil through $ 45 (Resistant Line), next target to $ 50! Good for Mining Sector
You must remember Oil going UP into 46$ now, because of WAR. Retaliatory attacks by Israel against Hamas in the Gaza strip threatened to disrupt supplies from the Middle East.

It is Small BULL, remember to keep your half money!! Choose Mining Sector!!
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2009 World Economy Prediction

2009 World Economy Prediction :

1. Great Depression, worst since 1930. 55 percent of people said the financial crisis would affect them personally within 2009. 77 percent of them say their industry is in a state of crisis, and 50 percent say the economy is the worst it has been in their careers.


2. Oil price sideways 35$ - 44$ to 60$ - 75$. Oil price will go up until Israel stop war against GAZA. In February OPEC will cut oil productions again!!

3. Gold price goes up slowly into 1000$, good for Gold sector Company, but who buy gold in the middle of CRISIS!! It not going up fast but save!!

4. US, Europe, and Japan show an economic slowdown in 2009. Economy get better in the middle of year 2009.

5. 2009 will be one of the worst economic periods in U.S. history. If the street thinks the economy will improve in 2010, then 2009 should be an up year for equities.

6. Economy 2009 for Developing Countries in the area to be 4-5 percent growth, Because the increasingly strict credit and increase food and energy prices. Lenders or BANK will be very cautious about loaning money.

7. More Trouble Finding or Keeping A Job in 2009. The World unemployment rate is growing along with the national debt. As business continues to slow.

MY Advice, if you want to buy stock or shares choose Mining Sector especially Gold, Oil, and Coal sector. In Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) Bank and Coal sector still the BEST for now, because Bank of Indonesia will cut interest rate into 7% during the year 2009. Keep a half of your money , market still in dangerous situation!!

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IHSG next target 1400??? What stock you must BUY!!

You Must Play save until next year. Gain 5%-4% juts take it. IHSG will occur Profit Take in this week. Oil price now 42$, it must break into 50$. If it happen it's good for mining sector. I offer you to buy Coal sector and Crude Palm oil sector, like PTBA, ITMG, AALI, SGRO, TBLA, and ADRO.

BUT not buy BUMI why??? Meanwhile, Bumi Resources shares although obsess enough, but reminded the company is still very risky because it must resolve the Debt. For coal, shares of PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA) still THE BEST. And AALI for Palm sector.

Because GM and Chrysler saved by The US goverement, it very good for Indonesian automotives like ASII and UNTR!!

Analysis look PICTURE :
1. IHSG cannot Break CUP HANDLE.
2. Still in 50% RSI.
3. Will be GOLDEN CROSS.
4. Target 1400, watch with BIG VOLUME!!
5. Watch DOW JONES CONDITION TOO!!

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Dow Jones Condition 21th Desember

Dow will break up tomorrow why??
1. Oil Now Getting better 42$ after dropped into 33$.
2. US Government saved GM an Chrysler, with bailout but only until 31 march.
3. It Created CONE shape, wanna break up. Watch the volume okey!!
4. RSI (Relative Strength Index) will move above 50%.
5. GOLDEN CROSS will happend, MA30 will cross MA40 from bottom to top.
6. After one an half weeks Dow can not back below the MA30. VERY-VERY STRONG SUPPORT.
7. MA30 and Fibonacci 50% line exactly in the SAME line, it is 8600.

NEXT first UP target DOW will be 8800.
If DOW break down MA30 it could be DANGER!! First DOWN target will be 8400!!
SUCCESS ALL Read More....