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Showing posts with label William J Oneil Method. Show all posts
Showing posts with label William J Oneil Method. Show all posts

Monday, May 25, 2009

WHEN TO BE PATIENT AND HOLD A STOCK

The best results are achieved through concentration: putting all your eggs in just a few baskets that you know a great deal about and continuing to watch those baskets very carefully. The more stocks you own, the slower you may be to react and take selling action to raise sufficient cash when the next serious bear market begins. The winning Investors have one or two big winners rather than dozens of very small profits!

How long do you keep your stock is not IMPORTANT, concern about buy THE RIGHT STOCK at the right time. Sell your stock whenever it touch your sell rule! Some of the winners hold more than 3 months, six, one, or maybe two year. Do not day trade!!

Should you used MARGIN? If you are new comer do not use margin. At least one or two years after stay in The Market Exchange. The best time to use margin is usually during the first two years of a new bull market. Once you recognize a new bear market, you should get off margin immediately and raise as much cash as possible. If you are unquestionably active and more seasoned, you may consider limited short selling.

Should I sell short? Do not sell anyting short during a bull market. Save short selling for bear markets. The second rule is never sell short a thinly capitalized (small number of shares outstanding) stock; it's too easy for the stock to be run up on you (that's called a short squeeze, and it doesn't feel very good when you are in one).

Two best chart for short selling are :

1. The Head and Shoulders top. The right shoulder should be lower than the left, and the best time to short is after the third upward pullback in price in the right shoulder is about over. Furthermore, the stock’s relative strength line should be on a clear downtrend over at least 3 or 4 months or longer!

2. CUP and Handle or other similar patterns that have definitely failed after an attempted breakout. The stock should be just picking up trading volume an starting to break down below the handle area.



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Thursday, February 26, 2009

How to Make Money in Stocks Part 7

WHEN TO BE PATIENT AND HOLD A STOCK

1. After buy new stock, draw a red defensive sell line (CUT LOSS) on graph. If your stock increases 15% or more after a correct purchase, move the defensive sell line up to less than 5% below the pivot purchase price. You do not need to raise up your stop-loss, because you will forced normal correction. Once your stock is 15% above your buy point, you need think when to sell on the way up to nail down short term profit.


2.BUY THE BEST STOCK and wait until you proved it wrong or right. At least 13 weeks after first purchase. But set defensive sell price first.


3. Any stock that rises close to 20% should never be allowed to drop back into the loss column. For example, if you buy a stock at $50 and it shoots up to $60 (+20%) and you don't take the profit when you have it, there is no intelligent reason to ever let it drop all the way back to 50$ or below and create loss.


4.Pay attention to OVERALL MARKET TREND!! If you buy a stock that OVERALL MARKET is downtrend, you will be in trouble!!


5.Major advance require time to complete. Dramatic stock advancing 20% or more in only four or five weeks are the most powerful stocks of all, capable of increase of 100%, 200%, or more!


6.If you have A LEADER STOCK you may to hold it at least until its weekly close below its 10-week moving average price line on increase volume.


7. If possible, try to hold through the stock's first short-term correction once you already have a profit.


8. Holding for a long-term gain during the early stage of a new bull market, in many cases, may force you to stick to your position long enough to make a big gain. Remember, the object is not to be right, but to make big money when you are right.

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Friday, February 13, 2009

36 GUIDES TO SELL STOCK

1. Buying right solves half of your selling problem. If you buy exactly at the right time off a proper base structure in the first place and do not chase or pyramid a stock when it is extended in price too far past a buy point, you will be in a position to sit through most. normal corrections in the price of your stock. Winning stocks seldom drop 8% below a correct pivot-point buying price.

2. Beware of the big-block selling you see on the ticker tape just after

you have bought a stock during a bull market. Avoid getting scared or shaken out in what may just be a normal pullback.

3. If after a stock's price is extended from a proper base, its price closes for a larger increase than on any previous up days, watch out! This move usually occurs at or very close to a stock's peak.

4. The ultimate top may occur on the heaviest volume day since the beginning of the advance.

5. Sell if a stock advance gets so active that it has a rapid price run up for two or three weeks (eight to twelve days). This is called climax (blow-off) top activity.

6. Sell if a stock runs up on a stock split for one or two weeks (usually + 25% or + 30% and, in a few rare instances, + 50%). If a stock's price is extended from its base and a stock split is announced, in many instances the stock should be sold.

7. Big investors must sell when they have buyers to absorb their stock; therefore, consider selling if a stock runs up and then good news or major publicity (a cover article in Business Week, for example) is released.

8. New highs on decreased or poor volume means there is temporarily no demand for the stock at that level and selling may soon overcome the stock.

9. After an advance, heavy volume without further upside price progress signals distribution.

10. Tops will show arrows pointing down on a stock's daily chart (closing at lows of the daily price range on several days—in other words, full retracement of a day's advance).

11. When it's exciting and obvious to everyone that a stock is going higher, sell, because it is too late! Jack Dreyfus said, "Sell when there is an overabundance of optimism. When everyone is bubbling optimism and running around trying to get everyone else to buy, they are fully invested. At this point, all they can do is talk. They can't push the market up anymore. It takes buying power to do that." Buy when you are scared to death and others are unsure. Wait until you are happy and tickled to death to sell.

12. If a stock that has been advancing rapidly is extended from its base and opens on a gap up in price, the advance is probably near its peak. A two-point gap in a stock's price would occur if it closed at its high of $50 for the day and the next morning opened at $52 and held above $52 during the day.

13. Sell if a stock's price breaks badly for several days and does not rally.

14. Consider selling if a stock takes off for a good advance over several weeks and then retraces all of that advance.

15. When quarterly earnings increases slow materially or earnings actually decline for two consecutive quarters, in most cases sell.

16. Consider selling if there is no confirming price strength by another important member of the same group.

17. Be careful of selling on bad news or rumors; they are usually of temporary influence. Rumors are sometimes started to catch the little fish off balance.

18. Try to avoid selling on shakeouts (below major price-support areas).

19. If you didn't sell early while the stock was still advancing, sell on the way down from the peak. After the first break, some stocks may once pull back up in price.

20. After a stock declines 8% or so from its peak, in some cases examination of the previous run up, the top, and the decline may help determine if the advance may be over or if a normal 8% to 12% correction is in progress. You may occasionally want to sell if a decline from peak exceeds 12% or 15%.

21. If a stock already has made an extended advance and suddenly makes its greatest one-day price drop since the beginning of the move, consider selling, but only if confirmed by other signals.

22. When you see initial heavy selling near the top, the next recovery will either follow through weaker in volume, show poor price recovery, or last a shorter number of days. Sell on the second or third day of poor rally; it will be the last good chance to sell before trend lines and support areas are broken.

23. Sell if a stock closes the end of the week below a major long-term uptrend line or breaks a key price-support area on overwhelming volume.

24. The number of down days in price versus up days in price will change after a stock starts down.

25. Wait for a second confirmation of major changes in the general market, and don't buy back stocks you sold just because they can be bought cheaper.

26. Learn from your past selling mistakes. Do your own post-analysis by plotting on charts your past buy-and-sell points.

27. Sell quickly before it becomes completely clear that a stock should be sold. Selling after a stock has broken an obvious support level could be a poor decision because the stock could pull back after touching off stop orders and attracting short sellers.

28. Always project the week you can expect capital-gains selling by those who bought in volume at the original breakout point from a base. (This applies only if current tax laws favor capital gains.)

29. In a few cases, you should sell if a stock hits its upper channel line. (Channel lines are drawn to connect the lows and connect the highs on a stock's price chart.) Stocks surging above their upper channel lines should normally be sold.

30. Sell when your stock makes a new high in price if it's off a third- or fourth-stage base. The third chance is seldom a charm in the market. It has become too obvious and almost everyone sees it.

31. Sell on new price highs off a wide-and-loose, erratic chart price formation.

32. Sell on new highs if a stock has a weak base with much of the price work in the lower half of the base or below its 200-day moving average price line.

33. In some cases, sell if a stock breaks down on the largest weekly volume in its prior five years.

34. Some stocks can be sold when they are 70% to 100% above their 200-day moving average price line.

35. After a prolonged upswing, if a stock's 200-day moving average line of its price turns into a downtrend, consider selling the stock.

36. Poor relative price strength can be a reason for selling. Consider selling when a stock's relative strength on a scale from 1 to 99 drops below 70.

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Wednesday, February 11, 2009

How to Make Money in Stocks Part 6

WHEN TO SELL
Take Your Profit


Is the best to learn to sell on the way up while your stock still advancing and looks strong to everyone else. By do that, you will avoid getting caught in 20% to 40% corrections which occur periodically. You never sell at the exact top, so stop says “Oh after I sold it moved higher!!”. The purpose you play stocks to get GAIN not GREEDYY. The old man saying is, “ Bulls make money and Bears make money, BUT PIGS DON’T”.


Rothschild’s Stock Rule, never buy at the Bottom and always sell too soon.


Joe Kennedy Stock rule, The object is to get out while stock is up, before it has chance to break down. Once the price has risen into estimated normal or overvaluation areas, the amount held should be reduced steadily as quotations advance.


Jack Dreyfus Stock Rule. He only bought when the price broke into new high ground. He was also beating the pants off every one of his competitors that depended solely on fundamental analytical opinions and ignored the market behavior of stocks.


Jesse Livermore, His method is AVERAGING UP, or PYRAMIDING, when stock moved up after purchase.


Profit Loss Plan. Not pyramid more than 5% than buy point, and sell when it reach 20% from break out point. Take 20% profits when you have them (except with the most powerful of all stocks) and cut losses at 8%.

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Monday, February 9, 2009

How to Make Money in Stocks Part 5

WHEN TO SELL
If Your Selection Timing Might Be Wrong


In the stock market, you absolutely can’t win either unless you have a strong predetermined defense to protect yourself against large losses. This


May surprise you, but if you invest in stocks, you are going to make a never ending number of mistakes in your selection and timing of purchases. These poor decisions will lead to losses, some of which can become quite awful. No matter how smart you may think you are or how good you believe your information or analysis is, you simply are not going to be right all of the time. In fact, you will probably be right only half the time, or maybe WORST, but you can still WIN!


THE SECRET TO WINNING in stock market is to lose the least amount possible when you are not right. I other words you must set CUT LOSS position!! I suggest you consider writing down the price at which you expect to sell if you have a loss, as well as the expected profit potential of all the securities you purchase. By writing it down, you will focus your attention later on the fact that the stock has reached one of these levels. Like I shows my CUT LOSS points in this BLOG. I usually used 5% below my purchase points!! BUT THE LIMIT IS 8%!!!


VERY - VERY RISKY THINKSSS, “I’m Along Term Investor, I am not worried, I am still getting MY DEVIDENS”. It is naive because good stocks can go down as much as might not be good stocks in the first place. NONONO AVERAGE DOWN.


In short, if you want to make money in the stock market, you need a specific defensive plan for cutting your losses quickly and you need to develop the decisiveness and discipline to make these tough, hard-headed business decisions without wavering.


Remember, there are no good stocks—they are all bad...unless they go up.

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Sunday, January 25, 2009

How to Make Money in Stocks Part 4

I INSTITUTIONAL SPONSORSHIP. A little Goes A Long Way


A stock certainly does not need a large number of institutional owners, but it should have at least a few such sponsors. Three to ten might be a minimum or reasonable number of mutual fund sponsors, although some stocks might have a good deal more.


If stocks has no professional sponsorship, chances that its performance will be more slow. If there is no sponsorship and you try to sell your stock, who will buy it. I told you Choose a stock that has big volume of buying and selling. The other said it’s the Favorite Stock, at least it has volume Of 50 billion Rupiah! buy stocks that have at least a few institutional sponsors with better-than-average recent performance records.



M MARKET DIRECTION. How to Determine it


The Last and The most important, if you choose wrong market direction your stock will slump, although you already use the other method. The best way to determine the direction of market is to follow and understand every day what general market are doing!


The way to determine it :

1.Look for the heavy volume, if the volume higher than the preceding day and IHSG (Indonesia Stock Exchange) composite index show stalling action, or less upward movement than the prior few days, that indicate MARKET TOP.


2.Look all major Stock Exchange In the WORLD. As I say its Dow Industrial Index and Hang Seng index very influential with IHSG (Indonesia Stock Exchange) index. For example look the percentage of upward for the day. If IHSG upward 10% and DOW Jones only 2%, IHSG was not strong enough!!


3. Rate Changes. In US follow Federal Reserve Board (FED) Rate, but in Indonesia follow Bank Indonesia (BI) Rate. In the past, it frequently marked the beginning of bear markets and impending recessions when the discount rate was increased three times in succession, and it usually signaled the end of a bear market when the discount rate was finally lowered.


4.During BEAR MARKET, stocks open strong in the morning and close weak by the end of trading time. During BULL MARKET, stocks tend to open down and come back later in the day to close up strong.


5.Follow THE STOCKS LEADER!!


6.Look and study what happen in the world RIGHT NOW.


7.Play safe if you do not know to CHOOSE a stock. Choose The Defensive stock sector as utilities, tobaccos, foods, and soaps!

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Tuesday, January 20, 2009

How to Make Money in Stocks Part 3

S SUPPLY AND DEMAND: SMALL CAPITALIZATION PLUS BIG VOLUME DEMAND

This is BASIC principle, like you buy in grocery store. If Grocer only has one slice of cheese, ten people want to buy cheese, cheese price will go up. *SIMPLE*. The law of supply and demand is more important than all analyst opinions on Stock Market. I tell you must look the volume of transactions, you before you buy that shares *ALWAYS* 50% or more it’s better. Stocks that have a large percentage ownership by top management are THE BEST PROSPECT.


L LEADER OR LAGGARD. Which is your stock??

Buy The Best Two or Three in the groups. How to choose The Best stock (LEADER), its very easy use Relative Strength Index (RSI). Leader company always moves above 70% RSI line. If RSI line below 50% for four months, do not buy that stock again something happen with that stock. In Indonesian stock market ALL TOP LEADER stock join in a group Name Blue Chip or LQ45!!! It seldom pays to invest in laggard performing stocks

even if they look tantalizingly cheap. Look for the market leader.

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Friday, January 16, 2009

How to Make Money in Stocks Part 2

A ANNUAL EARNINGS INCREASE

The annual growth should be increase about 25% or more, per year for the last 4 years. In fact companies which have good stability of annual growth, mostly their stocks show slow growth. If The Market situation go down or BEARISH, the company’s stock will not go down fast and stay stabile. Example: Bank Central Asia and Unilever Stock in 2008.

PER (Price to Earnings Ratio) is use to find stocks is undervalued (Buy) and overvalued (Sell). But not crucial as EPS (Earning Per Share). The Company which have good EPS good Annual report, mostly have very bad PER. Do not buy A Stock because PER looks very low, it can be cheaper. EPS and Annual Report are The Best. Looks this chart, Click picture to ZOOM :



antm stock Part2Btel stock part2



N NEW PRODUCT, NEW MANAGEMENT, NEW HIGH

This can be new product, new service, new Top management, new building’s decoration, new company name, new symbol, new technology, or anything new. It can cause to increase profit rapidly. Like Apple Company, The CEO, Steve Jobs make new innovation every year or he said ”Every Day”! Google make new products, like Google earth or buy another company, Microsoft also do so!!

What is new HIGH??? When stocks reach new high price it can go more high, while the other stocks declined!! The Best new HIGH PRICE built after ten or more week consolidation or I said “Sideways or Cup”!!


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Monday, January 12, 2009

How to Make Money in Stocks part 1



by William J Oneil
One of The BEST METHOD TO CHOOSE STOCK!!
William create CANSLIM method, describes as :


C = Current Quarterly Earnings Per Share: How Much Is Enough?

A = Annual Earnings Increases: Look for Meaningful Growth.

N = New Products, New Management, New Highs: Buying at the Right Time.

S = Supply and Demand: Small Capitalization Plus Volume Demand.

L = Leader or Laggard: Which Is Your Stock?

I = Institutional Sponsorship: A Little Goes a Long Way.

M = Market Direction: How to Determine It?



C CURRENT QUATERLY EARNINGS PER SHARE:

Do not buy a stock that’s not show EPS (Earning Per Share) increase at least 15% from the new quarter report versus the same quarter report the year before. Check the group of stock that you want to buy, if other stock in same group not show good EPS, do not buy that stock.

Hmm I always find quarterly report in here. Enter symbol on the edit text like “antm.jk” or “tlkm.jk”. Look tabs “Stocks” on left side choose “Estimates”. Reuters show all about stock, not only financial highlights but all information about The Company. Like overview, ratio, recommendation about stock, etc. Or you can ask your broker to give Financial Highlight reports.

Stock EPS

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